What are the pros and cons of doing that
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1. Omar has heard from some of his customers that they will probably cut back on order sizes in the
next quarter. The company he works for has been reducing its sales force due to falling demand and
he worries that he could be next if his sales begin to fall off. Believing that he may be able to convince his customers not to cut back on orders, he turns in an optimistic
sales to his manager. What are the pros and cons of doing that?
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?Omar has heard from some of his customers that they will probably cut back on order sizes in the next quarter. The company he works for has been reducing its salesforce due to falling demand, and he worries that he could be next if his sales begin to fall off. Believing that he may be able to convince his customers not to cut back on orders, he turns in an optimistic forecast of his next quarter sales to his manager. What are the pros and cons of doing that?4 .Substitute for Problem # 4 on in attachment)-Calculate the MAD,revised MAD and the Revised Forecast for months 1-6 for the following three groups,where the Forecast stands for Forecast Demand.Has your forecast improved ? Tell me how would you go about improving the revised forecast( for each of the three groups)without actually doing so? Estate Planning Group Auditing and Accounting Group Business Consulting Group Month Actual Demand Forecast Actual Demand Forecast Actual Demand Forecast 1 100 125 270 230 140 135 2 90 125 240 230 130 135 3 110 125 280 230 160 135 4 115 125 260 230 180 135 5 130 125 300 230 200 135 6 115 125 220 230 190 135
- Month Demand Forecast Error Abs Error alpha 1 20 2 18 3 21 4 25 5 24 6 27 7 22 8 30 9 23 10 20 11 29 12 22 Mean Bias MAD (mean error) Problem 6: Maverick Jeans' demand manager decided to evaluate exponential smoothing. To maintain com- parability, she used the data from problem 6, copied below. 1 Month 2 3 Demand 20 18 21 25 4 5 24 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 27 22 30 23 20 29 22 Develop forecasts for months 5-12. Calculate the Bias and MAD. Use a starting forecast of 20 for month 4 and an alpha value of 0.2. (Note: Adjust all cell values to two decimal points.)Specific motors produces electronic motors for power-actuated valves for the Medicalconstruction industry. Specific's production plant has operated at near capacity forover a year now. JOSEPH Bakkabulindi, the plant manager thinks that the growth insales will continue, and he wants to develop a long- range forecast to be used to planfacility requirements for the next 3 years. Sales records for the past 10 years havebeen accumulated: N.B: Show all the workings. Solve with Linear regression. Year Annual sales (000's of units) Year Annual sales (000's of units 1 500 6 1,000 2 650 7 1,100 3 900 8 1,300 4 1,000 9 1,450 5 1,000 10 1,600Interpret the MAD of the most accurate among the forecasting models below. A. Naïve approach;B. 5-month SMA model;C. WMA model with weights 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6; orD. ES model with α = 0.5 and a forecast of 3,500 liters in the first month.
- 2. Fastway is a parcel delivery company based in Pretoria. It measures demand on a weekly basis in terms of the number of parcels which it is given to deliver (irrespective of the size of each parcel). The forecast for week 20 is 63. The table below shows actual demands for Fastway. Week Actual demand 20 63 21 62 22 67 23 66 24 67 25 69 26 65 27 71 28 68 29 68 30 70 31 72 32 66 33 68 34 67 Predict the forecast for week 35 using an exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.20.1. Solve manually. The following gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Woodlawn Hospital in the past 6 weeks. Pints Used 360 Week August 31 September 7 September 14 September 21 September 28 389 410 381 368 October 5 374 a. Forecast the demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average. b. Use a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of 0.1, 0.3 and 0.6, using 0.6 for the most recent week. Forecast demand for the week of October 12. c. Compute the forecast for the week of October 12 using exponential smoothing with a forecast for August 31 of 360 and c=0.2. d. Compute the MAD for the 3-week moving average, 3-week weighted moving average and exponential smoothing models above.12-1. The Hartley-Davis motorcycle dealer in the Minneapolis- St. Paul area wants to be able to forecast accurately the de- mand for the Roadhog Super motorcycle during the next month. From sales records, the dealer has accumulated the data in the following table for the past year. Month January February March April Мay June Motorcycle Sales 7 10 8 7 12 July August September 10 11 12 October 10 November December 14 16 a Compute a three-month moving average forecast of demand for April through January (of the next year). b. Compore a five-month moving average forecast for June drough January. c. Compare the two forecasts computed in parts (a) and (b) using MAD. Which one should the dealer use for January of dhe next year?
- Week Sales1 27502 31003 32504 28005 29006 30507 33008 31009 295010 300011 320012 3150Develop a three-week moving average. A.What is the forecast for week 5? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) B.What is the value of MSE (mean squared error) with regard to a three-week moving average? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) C.Develop the exponential smoothing with the alpha value of 0.20. What is the forecast for week 5? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) D.What is the value of MSE (mean squared error) with regard to the exponential smoothing? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) E.Which method is more accurate? (1 for Moving average, 2 for Exponential Smoothing)11. Consider the following actual and forecast demand levels for Big Mac hamburgers at a local McDonald's restaurant: Day Actual Demand Forecast Demand Monday 88.00 88.00 Tuesday 72.00 88.00 Wednesday 68.00 84.00 Thursday 48.00 80.00 Friday − ? Part 2 The forecast for Monday was derived by observing Monday's demand level and setting Monday's forecast level equal to this demand level. Subsequent forecasts were derived by using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.25. Using this exponential smoothing method, the forecast for Big Mac demand for Friday is __________ Big Macs (round your response to one decimal place).Which would result in a positive budget forecasting error? 1. Overlooking a source of investment income II. Not taking into account an expense paid once а year II. Switching to a less costly gym v. Underestimating annual car expenses V. Overestimating expected capital gains