a) Suppose that a time series appears to exhibit a sudden major shift in pattern, how could you determine whether this is due to irregular variation or to a permanent change in the trend or cyclical components. b) The quarterly Ghana Cedis earnings for a retailer have been recorded as follows: Quarter Year 1 2 3 4 2003 42 57 75 44 2004 47 65 80 51 2005 50 67 84 53 2006 56 72 83 57 Using the multiplicative model: i. Compute the seasonal indices for the data. ii. Fit the least squares trend line to the moving average found in (i). iii. Use your results in (i) and (ii) above to forecast the quarterly earnings of the retailer for 2007.
a) Suppose that a time series appears to exhibit a sudden major shift in pattern, how could you determine whether this is due to irregular variation or to a permanent change in the trend or cyclical components. b) The quarterly Ghana Cedis earnings for a retailer have been recorded as follows: Quarter Year 1 2 3 4 2003 42 57 75 44 2004 47 65 80 51 2005 50 67 84 53 2006 56 72 83 57 Using the multiplicative model: i. Compute the seasonal indices for the data. ii. Fit the least squares trend line to the moving average found in (i). iii. Use your results in (i) and (ii) above to forecast the quarterly earnings of the retailer for 2007.
Calculus For The Life Sciences
2nd Edition
ISBN:9780321964038
Author:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.
Publisher:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.
Chapter1: Functions
Section1.EA: Extended Application Using Extrapolation To Predict Life Expectancy
Problem 7EA
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Question
a) Suppose that a time series appears to exhibit a sudden major shift in pattern, how
could you determine whether this is due to irregular variation or to a permanent
change in the trend or cyclical components.
b) The quarterly Ghana Cedis earnings for a retailer have been recorded as follows:
Quarter
Year
1
2
3
4
2003
42
57
75
44
2004
47
65
80
51
2005
50
67
84
53
2006
56
72
83
57
Using the multiplicative model:
i. Compute the seasonal indices for the data.
ii. Fit the least squares trend line to the moving average found in (i).
iii. Use your results in (i) and (ii) above to forecast the quarterly earnings of the retailer for
2007.
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