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- Table 6 shows the year and the number ofpeople unemployed in a particular city for several years. Determine whether the trend appears linear. If so, and assuming the trend continues, in what year will the number of unemployed reach 5 people?Which of the following time series forecasting methods would not be used to forecast seasonal data?Which of the time series forecasting methods would not be used to forecast seasonal data?
- Consider the following time series data. a. Show the four-quarter and centered moving average values for this time series (to 3 decimals if necessary). b. Compute seasonal indexes and adjusted seasonal indexes for the four quarters (to 3 decimals).For the Texas Shipping Company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are 82, 86, 87, 89, 84, 85, 84, 86, 75, 95, 90, and 92. a. Construct a time series plot (you can include it in the work file question at the end, not here). Identify what type of pattern, if any, exists in the data? Compare the three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for alpha= 0.25 and answer the following: b. MSE for 3-month moving average method c. MSE for exponential-smoothing method : d. Which method should be preferred? Answer "3-month MA" or "Exponential Smoothing": e. What is the forecast for next month using the preferred method?The following table reports the percentage of stocks in a portfolio for nine quarters: a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?b. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a thatresults in a relatively small MSE.c. Using the exponential smoothing model you developed in part b, what is the forecastof the percentage of stocks in a typical portfolio for the second quarter of year 3?
- consider the following time series data.Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Value 24 13 20 12 19 23 15a. compute MSe using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period. Whatis the forecast for month 8?b. compute MSe using the average of all the data available as the forecast for the nextperiod. What is the forecast for month 8?c. Which method appears to provide the better forecast?Consider the following time series data: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 26 15 22 14 21 25 17 PART 1.Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period and then calculate the forecast for month 8. PART 2.Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as the forecast for the next period. What is the forecast for month 8?A tubes lifetime for your company's microwave follow an exponential distribution with a mean of 5.6 years. Your sales policy states that each magnetron tube has a two year warranty. What fraction of the tubes should your company plan to replace under warranty?
- Describe the three major categories of data (time-series, cross-sectional, and panel).Consider the following time series data. month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 value |18|16 20 18 22 20 15 22 a. Develop the three-month moving average forecasts for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month9. b. Using a=0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month9. c. Which method appears to provide the better forecast?The component of a time series attached to long term variations is termed as O a. Secular trend O b. Seasonal trend O c. Cyclic variation O d. Random variation