Which of these exponential smoothing models should be used, and what smoothing parameters should be used with these models to obtain the best expected overall accuracy from forecasts? Explain

Purchasing and Supply Chain Management
6th Edition
ISBN:9781285869681
Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson
Publisher:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson
ChapterC: Cases
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 5.2SC: Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing...
icon
Related questions
Question

Which of these exponential smoothing models should be used, and what smoothing parameters should be used with these models to obtain the best expected overall accuracy from forecasts? Explain

 

Sanderson Produce Co.
Sanderson Produce Co. (SPC) is a large firm that is a wholesale supplier for fruits and
vegetables in North Dakota. The firm obtains products from numerous international
sources, and it can therefore easily supply most produce on nearly a year-round basis.
SPC obtains advance contracts from suppliers to deliver this produce, and the firm has
experienced an increase in its market share over the past several years. This increase has
been primarily due to SPC's ability to deliver good quality products to customers in a
timely fashion. The firm is committed to continuing this effort, and SPC would find it
very useful to have reasonably accurate forecasts of quarterly demand for its products in
order to give some advance notice of anticipated demand and of the resulting contracts
that must be filled. This advance notice is very useful during preliminary contract
negotiations with potential suppliers. SPC management is only interested in short-term
forecasts for this application, and they also realize that it is not reasonable to expect to
obtain extremely precise forecasts for products of this type.
The problem of obtaining forecasts of demand for produce is made more difficult as
a result of seasonality that exists in the demand patterns for some items. As an example
of these seasonal effects, the quarterly demand for oranges for the past five years is given
in Exhibit 4.1, where demand values are given in terms of standard shipping units that
are common for the produce industry. This data represents 20 consecutive quarters of
observations, starting in Q1 for Year 1 and ending with Q4 of Year 5. The seasonal effect
in demand for oranges is primarily due to the tastes of consumers, with demand being
highest in winter months and lowest in summer months. Since oranges could be obtained
from international sources on nearly a year-round basis, this seasonality is not driven
from the supply side.
EXHIBIT 4.1. Quarterly demand for oranges at SPC
Quarter
Year 1
Year 3
1
173,200
181,400
2
145,400
151,800
3
82,000
95,000
4
128,200
141,800
Year 2
166,000
147,000
86,000
138,000
Year 4
193,600
165,800
106,200
155,000
Year 5
211,800
175,200
109,800
165,800
SPC wishes to develop short-term demand forecasts for each of its many different
products with a simple forecasting procedure. As a result, only simple exponential
smoothing and trend-adjusted exponential soothing are being considered for use. The
question that naturally arises is "Which of these exponential smoothing models should
be used, and what smoothing parameters should be used with these models to obtain the
best expected overall accuracy from forecasts?" Some insight to the answer to this
Transcribed Image Text:Sanderson Produce Co. Sanderson Produce Co. (SPC) is a large firm that is a wholesale supplier for fruits and vegetables in North Dakota. The firm obtains products from numerous international sources, and it can therefore easily supply most produce on nearly a year-round basis. SPC obtains advance contracts from suppliers to deliver this produce, and the firm has experienced an increase in its market share over the past several years. This increase has been primarily due to SPC's ability to deliver good quality products to customers in a timely fashion. The firm is committed to continuing this effort, and SPC would find it very useful to have reasonably accurate forecasts of quarterly demand for its products in order to give some advance notice of anticipated demand and of the resulting contracts that must be filled. This advance notice is very useful during preliminary contract negotiations with potential suppliers. SPC management is only interested in short-term forecasts for this application, and they also realize that it is not reasonable to expect to obtain extremely precise forecasts for products of this type. The problem of obtaining forecasts of demand for produce is made more difficult as a result of seasonality that exists in the demand patterns for some items. As an example of these seasonal effects, the quarterly demand for oranges for the past five years is given in Exhibit 4.1, where demand values are given in terms of standard shipping units that are common for the produce industry. This data represents 20 consecutive quarters of observations, starting in Q1 for Year 1 and ending with Q4 of Year 5. The seasonal effect in demand for oranges is primarily due to the tastes of consumers, with demand being highest in winter months and lowest in summer months. Since oranges could be obtained from international sources on nearly a year-round basis, this seasonality is not driven from the supply side. EXHIBIT 4.1. Quarterly demand for oranges at SPC Quarter Year 1 Year 3 1 173,200 181,400 2 145,400 151,800 3 82,000 95,000 4 128,200 141,800 Year 2 166,000 147,000 86,000 138,000 Year 4 193,600 165,800 106,200 155,000 Year 5 211,800 175,200 109,800 165,800 SPC wishes to develop short-term demand forecasts for each of its many different products with a simple forecasting procedure. As a result, only simple exponential smoothing and trend-adjusted exponential soothing are being considered for use. The question that naturally arises is "Which of these exponential smoothing models should be used, and what smoothing parameters should be used with these models to obtain the best expected overall accuracy from forecasts?" Some insight to the answer to this
Expert Solution
steps

Step by step

Solved in 4 steps with 2 images

Blurred answer
Similar questions
  • SEE MORE QUESTIONS
Recommended textbooks for you
Purchasing and Supply Chain Management
Purchasing and Supply Chain Management
Operations Management
ISBN:
9781285869681
Author:
Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson
Publisher:
Cengage Learning
MARKETING 2018
MARKETING 2018
Marketing
ISBN:
9780357033753
Author:
Pride
Publisher:
CENGAGE L
Contemporary Marketing
Contemporary Marketing
Marketing
ISBN:
9780357033777
Author:
Louis E. Boone, David L. Kurtz
Publisher:
Cengage Learning