what is the main difference between casual methods and time series methods used in forecasting? explain using briefly your own words
Q: Explain the benefits does exponential smoothing have over moving avarages as a forecasting tool ?
A: While in Moving Averages the previous perceptions are weighted similarly, Exponential Smoothing…
Q: snip
A: When one forecasting technique is more accurate than another technique when applied to past data the…
Q: When to use of a time series forecasting technique, what assumptions are made?
A: The statistic techniques uses statistic on historical data and therefore the variables forecasted.…
Q: It has been said that forecasting using exponential smoothing is like driving a car by looking in…
A: A person drives a car, he knows where he has to look. In most of the time, he has to look straight…
Q: What tool should we use to know whether our forecasting was under forecasted or over forcasted? Is…
A: This question is related to forecasting, we use several tools or parameters to check Bias, accuracy…
Q: What is the forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .6? 2. If we decide to…
A: ANSWER IS AS FOLLOWS:
Q: Discuss the basic assumptions made when using time series forecasting techniques as opposed to…
A: Several assumptions are made during the Time Series Initial Phase.
Q: What are the similarities and differences between ridge regression and forecasting?
A: A Small Introduction about Regression Regression analysis is used to predict a continuous dependent…
Q: In your own words and it should be in paragraph form. Also, don't forget to conclude. 1. Identify…
A: Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of the future on the basis of past and present data…
Q: The moving average forecasting method is typically bestfor products:a) Functional b) Innovativec)…
A: The correct answer is option c) Mature. Moving Average formula is used to average the number of…
Q: Contrast the reactive and proactive approaches to forecasting. Give several examples of types…
A: When one talks of proactive and reactive approaches to forecasting, it basically means that one has…
Q: Explain what are the forecasting process principles?
A: Forecasting is the science of forecasting what will occur in the future based on past and current…
Q: What advantages does exponential smoothing have over movingcaverages as a forecasting tool?
A: The following are the benefits of exponential smoothing as a forecasting tool over moving averages.…
Q: subject: strategic management What are some of the issues and danger in forecasting? Cite…
A: The methods and procedures used to forecast company events such as sales, expenditures, and profits…
Q: Think of an industry or company other than automotive that relies heavily on forecasting accuracy.…
A: Forecasting is completely based on past data, unlike predictions that are based on instinct, or…
Q: Contrast the use of MAD and MSE in evaluating forecasts?
A: Forecasting is the process of identifying the demand accurately for future production planning and…
Q: Using your own words, describe the drawbacks of the moving average forecasting model and the…
A: Definitions Moving average: - A forecast which is made by taking the average or weighted average of…
Q: What factors would you consider in deciding whether to use wide or narrow control limits for…
A: Control limits refer to those limits within which all the data values are acceptable by the…
Q: Explain what assumptions do qualitative forecasting systems make
A: Qualitative prediction systems make the following assumptions:
Q: What does the word "biassed" mean when applied to a specific forecasting technique?
A: Forecasting is a common and widely used methodology in almost every area of endeavor, including…
Q: What does the term biased mean in reference to a particular forecasting technique?
A: The forecasting techniques are used for predicting the future demand and sales of the product. The…
Q: What th ree methods are used to determine the accuracy of any given forecasting method? How would…
A:
Q: Which qualitative forecasting technique was developed to ensure that the input from every…
A: Delphi method.
Q: What type of forecasting method would you recommend to a start-up retailer in terms of quantities,…
A: Demand forecasting is very important for any startup when you have an absence of resources and…
Q: List three qualitative forecasting methods and discuss one of them in details.
A: Qualitative forecasting techniques depend on immeasurable data like views & intuition. The…
Q: Using MAD as a criterion, which technique has the better performance record?
A: MAD or Mean Absolute Deviation indicating the average value of the absolute errors. An efficient…
Q: Which qualitative forecasting technique was developed to ensure that the input fromevery participant…
A: Forecasting is the way toward making forecasts of things to depend on at various times information…
Q: What forecasting technique makes use of written surveys or telephone interviews?
A: Ans- Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of the future on the basis of past and present…
Q: Suppose you are working for a baking company in Bangladesh. What are the relevant factors you will…
A: Forecasting is the activity of making estimations of future activities based on past and present…
Q: Can you tell the difference between "correct" and "true" when it comes to forecasting?
A: Forecasting is important in supply chain management because the production and inventory process of…
Q: Briefly mention the five characteristics of data patterns in time series method of forecasting.
A: Time series forecasting happens when making a scientific projection based on documented or…
Q: What three methods are used to determine the accuracy of any given forecasting method? How would you…
A: Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of future events based on past and present…
Q: Forecasting time horizons include:a) long range. b) medium range.c) short range. d) all of the…
A: Forecasting refers to making decisions and predicting on the basis of previous or past experiences.
Q: Discuss the strategic importance of forecasting. What strategic decisions do organizations need to…
A: There is a huge competition between all the organizations these days to excel themselves in their…
Q: Forecast is calculating estimates of future cycle/s based on data of past cycles -- there is no…
A: Forecasting is a prediction method that can use historical data and current market trends and…
Q: Describe the various types of time-series and associative forecasting models. Which types of…
A: Time series models take a gander at past examples of information and endeavor to foresee the future…
Q: snip
A: A moving average forecast becomes less responsive to change in a data series when more data points…
Q: Which of the following is true about naive forecasting? a. It involves a two-period shift between…
A: Naive Forecasting is an estimation technique in which the actual value of the last period is used as…
Q: ontrast the reactive and proactive approaches to forecasting. Give several examples of types of…
A: Forecasting: Forecasting is a technique and a method which takes into consideration a set of…
Q: Identify and explain the areas other than mentioned where the Hard Rock Cafe could use forecasting…
A: Hard Rock Cafe, Inc. is a chain of subject eateries established in 1971 by Isaac Tigrett and Peter…
Q: Forecasting can be classified into which basic types?
A: Forecasting is the process of identifying the demand accurately for future production planning and…
Q: Why the following Approaches are used in forecasting, how would you interpret them what do they mean…
A: Forecasting is a technique that a marketer uses to estimate various things like a trend, future…
Q: Explain how the technology of forecasting can be improved
A: Forecasting is a long-term and short-term activity that the company engages in on a regular basis.…
Q: Discuss what advantages as a forecasting tool does exponential smoothing have over moving averages?
A: In today's environment, when events change often, the exponential smoothing method is optimal.…
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
- The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?
- The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores. a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?
- Do the sales prices of houses in a given community vary systematically with their sizes (as measured in square feet)? Answer this question by estimating a simple regression equation where the sales price of the house is the dependent variable, and the size of the house is the explanatory variable. Use the sample data given in P13_06.xlsx. Interpret your estimated equation, the associated R-square value, and the associated standard error of estimate.A small computer chip manufacturer wants to forecast monthly ozperating costs as a function of the number of units produced during a month. The company has collected the 16 months of data in the file P13_34.xlsx. a. Determine an equation that can be used to predict monthly production costs from units produced. Are there any outliers? b. How could the regression line obtained in part a be used to determine whether the company was efficient or inefficient during any particular month?Explain the trade off between responsiveness and consistency in a time series forecasting system?
