What are ways of managing a poor forecast?
Q: Explain the benefits does exponential smoothing have over moving avarages as a forecasting tool ?
A: While in Moving Averages the previous perceptions are weighted similarly, Exponential Smoothing…
Q: Explain the term “wrong” as it pertains to a good forecast?
A: In forecasting techniques, the word "wrong" refers to a difference between the real and forecasted…
Q: Does a correct forecast prove that your forecast method was correct? Why or why not?
A: Forecasting is important as it helps a business in setting the correct level of inventory, set the…
Q: Which are the QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUES IN FORECASTING?
A: Forecasting is the process of identifying the demand accurately for future production planning and…
Q: Explain the word "false" for a successful forecast?
A: A difference between real and forecasted values is referred to as "fake" in forecasting strategies.…
Q: In your own words, explain adaptive forecasting.
A: Forecasting is the term which is defined as the technique that uses the data which is historical in…
Q: 12. Under the bottom-up approach, a central person or persons take the responsibility for…
A: The method of predicting future outcomes based on past and present data by analyzing the trends is…
Q: Explain why it's important to keep track of forecasting errors.
A: For a time series or other phenomenon of interest, forecast error is the difference between the…
Q: List the seven steps in the forecasting system?
A: Identify the problem: It is the step where the given problem is analyzed along with all the members…
Q: 10. What is the approximate forecast for May using a four-month moving average? a.38 b.43 c.44 d. 47
A: Given data is
Q: Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based on the following…
A: Since we only answer up to 3 sub-parts, we’ll answer the first 3. Please resubmit the question and…
Q: It is a common saying that the only thing certain about a forecast is that it will be wrong. What is…
A: Forecasting is the process of predicting future demand values based on historical data. The…
Q: List specific weaknesses of consumer surveys, sales composite and committee manager to develop a…
A: Consumer survey is a way to gauge the customer satisfaction and demand. through conducting a survey.…
Q: When should time series forecasting techniques be used?
A: The statistical data and, as a consequence, the projected features are analyzed using statistical…
Q: If the tracking signal for your forecast was consistently positive, you could then say this about…
A: Tracking signal, as the name suggests, is a way to evaluate the forecast in comparison to actual…
Q: If the Tracking Signal for your forecast was consistently positive, what could you then say this…
A: If the tracking signal of the forecast is always positive, then it is bias and consistently too low.…
Q: How do you make a lost-horse forecast?
A: Sales forecasting is a technique to estimate future sales which allows the companies to take more…
Q: Explain what forecasting techniques makes use of written surveys or telephone interviews
A: Operations management manages the internal operation. It starts with the procurement and ends with…
Q: What are some of the consequences of poor forecasts? Explain.
A: The Consequences of the poor forecast are:
Q: Explain the value of seasonal indices in forecasting. How areseasonal patterns different from…
A: Forecasting can be defined as the way or a process of making predictions based on past events or…
Q: Evaluate what is the purpose of a forecast.
A: ‘Business forecasting’ incorporates making informed guesstimates about particular business metrics,…
Q: Several business periodicals often carry reports of companies that may not have met their sales and…
A: Periodicals are a category of serial publications with a series of articles. They are published…
Q: What is forecast accuracy and what are the different methods to check it?
A: Forecast Accuracy is basically how accurately the predicted value matches the actual value. In…
Q: State the assumptions made when using a time series forecasting techniques
A: Numerous estimates are taken in statistical analysis.
Q: Here are the errors associated with a particular forecast over the past five months, in…
A: Forecasting is a methodology that uses past information as input to make well-informed predictions…
Q: snip
A: The quantitative forecasting techniques require the past relevant data, the absence of this makes…
Q: Explain the trade off between responsiveness and consistency in a time series forecasting system?
A: Tradeoff A tradeoff is a decision-making technique that involves sacrificing quality, quantity, or…
Q: Explain the distinction between short- and long-term forecasts?
A: Forecasting is a technique that enables the generation of educated forecasts by utilising historical…
Q: What are the challenges involved in forecasting?
A: Concept Introduction : Organizations use forecasting as a tool to think about and plan for the…
Q: A time-series trend equation is 25.3 + 21x. What is your forecast for period 7? A. 32.3 B.…
A: Forecasting is the process in which future demand is determined by estimation using previous data or…
Q: Describe the word least-square forecasting?
A: Forecasting is a technique for making educated forecasts based on historical evidence. It is used to…
Q: Explain the six steps involved in a typical forecasting procedure.
A: Forecasting is a technique that enables the creation of informed forecasts by utilising previous…
Q: What is Use a naive method to make a forecast?
A: Naïve method of forecasting is a simple forecasting method where the sales or demand of the previous…
Q: Explain when is time series forecasting used ?
A: Forecasting is the process of predicting future events based on previous data and information.
Q: What forecasting tool is most appropriate when closely working with customers dependent on your…
A: CPFR (Collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment) is a forecasting tool that is the most…
Q: Discuss what is seasonality and how forecast is done using data that has seasonality?
A: Time series analysis describes seasonal patterns as recurrent upward and downward cyclic patterns in…
Q: What does the term "adaptive forecasting" mean?
A: Forecasting is nothing more than forecasting patterns and making potential forecasts based on…
Q: How can you evaluate the accuracy of a forecast model? explain in detail
A: Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of the future on the basis of past and present data…
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- What forecasting techniques are used in the management of technology and innovation?The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.
- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
- Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?Are there models for making forecasts?