The following data report total, monthly U.S. book-store sales in millions of dollars from January 2016 to March 2019.      Year               Month 2016   2017   2018   2019   January 1,448 $ 1,366 $ 1,251 $ 1,124   February 707   671   689   646   March 699   687   714   665   April 689   709   690       May 758   761   767       June 693   684   707       July 667   649   681       August 1,504   1,354   1,344       September 1,044   977   966       October 695   669   721       November 722   683   748       December 1,236   1,137   1,239                             c. Which forecasting model is appropriate based on the data for the total U.S. bookstore sales?   d. Evaluate a seasonally adjusted trend forecasting model. What is the MAD? (Round your answers to 4 decimal places.) Month Number $ Sales (Millions) Period Trend Index Forecast Absolute Error 1 1,448 1         2 707 2         3 699 3         4 689 4         5 758 5         6 693 6         7 667 7         8 1,504 8         9 1,044 9         10 695 10         11 722 11         12 1,236 12         1 1,366 13         2 671 14         3 687 15         4 709 16         5 761 17         6 684 18         7 649 19         8 1,354 20         9 977 21         10 669 22         11 683 23         12 1,137 24         1 1,251 25         2 689 26         3 714 27         4 690 28         5 767 29         6 707 30         7 681 31         8 1,344 32         9 966 33         10 721 34         11 748 35         12 1,239 36         1 1,124 37         2 646 38         3 665 39                   MAD=     e. What is the average monthly trend in book-store sales? (Negative amounts should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your answer to 4 decimal places.)   f-1. What are the monthly indexes? (Round your answers to 4 decimal places.) Month Index 1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12     f-2. When are book sales the highest?   f-3. When are book sales the lowest?   g. Predict book sales for the next 9 months. (Round your answers to 4 decimal places.) Year Month Forecast Series 2019 April   2019 May   2019 June   2019 July   2019 August   2019 September   2019 October   2019 November   2019 December

Calculus For The Life Sciences
2nd Edition
ISBN:9780321964038
Author:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.
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Chapter1: Functions
Section1.EA: Extended Application Using Extrapolation To Predict Life Expectancy
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The following data report total, monthly U.S. book-store sales in millions of dollars from January 2016 to March 2019. 
 

  Year              
Month 2016   2017   2018   2019  
January 1,448 $ 1,366 $ 1,251 $ 1,124  
February 707   671   689   646  
March 699   687   714   665  
April 689   709   690      
May 758   761   767      
June 693   684   707      
July 667   649   681      
August 1,504   1,354   1,344      
September 1,044   977   966      
October 695   669   721      
November 722   683   748      
December 1,236   1,137   1,239      
                 

 

 
c. Which forecasting model is appropriate based on the data for the total U.S. bookstore sales?

 



d. Evaluate a seasonally adjusted trend forecasting model. What is the MAD? (Round your answers to 4 decimal places.)

Month Number $ Sales (Millions) Period Trend Index Forecast Absolute Error
1 1,448 1        
2 707 2        
3 699 3        
4 689 4        
5 758 5        
6 693 6        
7 667 7        
8 1,504 8        
9 1,044 9        
10 695 10        
11 722 11        
12 1,236 12        
1 1,366 13        
2 671 14        
3 687 15        
4 709 16        
5 761 17        
6 684 18        
7 649 19        
8 1,354 20        
9 977 21        
10 669 22        
11 683 23        
12 1,137 24        
1 1,251 25        
2 689 26        
3 714 27        
4 690 28        
5 767 29        
6 707 30        
7 681 31        
8 1,344 32        
9 966 33        
10 721 34        
11 748 35        
12 1,239 36        
1 1,124 37        
2 646 38        
3 665 39        
          MAD=  
 



e. What is the average monthly trend in book-store sales? (Negative amounts should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your answer to 4 decimal places.)

 



f-1. What are the monthly indexes? (Round your answers to 4 decimal places.)

Month Index
1  
2  
3  
4  
5  
6  
7  
8  
9  
10  
11  
12  
 



f-2. When are book sales the highest?

 



f-3. When are book sales the lowest?

 



g. Predict book sales for the next 9 months. (Round your answers to 4 decimal places.)

Year Month Forecast Series
2019 April  
2019 May  
2019 June  
2019 July  
2019 August  
2019 September  
2019 October  
2019 November  
2019 December  

 

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