Johnson Chemicals is considering two options for itssupplier portfolio. Option I uses two local suppliers. Each hasa " unique-event" risk of 5%, and the probability of a " superevent"that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be1.5%. Option 2 uses two suppliers located in different countries.Each has a "unique-event" risk of 13%, and the probability of a"super-event" that would disable both at the same time is estimatedto be 0.2%.a) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disrupted using option I?b) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disrupted using option 2?c) Which option would provide the lowest risk of a total shutdown?

Purchasing and Supply Chain Management
6th Edition
ISBN:9781285869681
Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson
Publisher:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson
ChapterC: Cases
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Johnson Chemicals is considering two options for its
supplier portfolio. Option I uses two local suppliers. Each has
a " unique-event" risk of 5%, and the probability of a " superevent"
that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be
1.5%. Option 2 uses two suppliers located in different countries.
Each has a "unique-event" risk of 13%, and the probability of a
"super-event" that would disable both at the same time is estimated
to be 0.2%.
a) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disrupted using option I?
b) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disrupted using option 2?
c) Which option would provide the lowest risk of a total shutdown?
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