If we want to use a multiplicative trend in Winter's method, we should use the following equations: L, = a * ) + (1 – a) * (!) T, = B * (II) + (1 – B) * T,-1 %3D ) + (1 – – y)* $r-12 a Determine what I and II should be. b Suppose we are working with monthly data and month 12 is a December, month 13 a January, and so on. Also suppose that L12 = 100, T12 = 1.2, s = 0.90, s2 = 0.70, and s3 = 0.95. Suppose x13 = 200. At the end of month 13, what is the prediction for x15? Assume a = B = y = 0.5.

If we want to use a multiplicative trend in Winter's method, we should use the following equations: L, = a * ) + (1 – a) * (!) T, = B * (II) + (1 – B) * T,-1 %3D ) + (1 – – y)* $r-12 a Determine what I and II should be. b Suppose we are working with monthly data and month 12 is a December, month 13 a January, and so on. Also suppose that L12 = 100, T12 = 1.2, s = 0.90, s2 = 0.70, and s3 = 0.95. Suppose x13 = 200. At the end of month 13, what is the prediction for x15? Assume a = B = y = 0.5.

Operations Research : Applications and Algorithms

4th Edition

ISBN:9780534380588

Author:Wayne L. Winston

Publisher:Wayne L. Winston

Chapter24: Forecasting Models

Section24.4: Winter’s Method: Exponential Smoothing With Seasonality

Problem 15P

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