i. Three year moving average method ii. Six year moving average method iii. Single exponential smoothing method (smoothing constant = 0.2) iv. Single exponential smoothing method (smoothing constant = 0.05)

Purchasing and Supply Chain Management
6th Edition
ISBN:9781285869681
Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson
Publisher:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson
ChapterC: Cases
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 5.3SD: Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling...
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Following data set indicates the annual electricity consumption of Sri Lanka in Mega Watt Hours (MWh) from 1996 to 2022 (Table).

You are required to forecast the electricity demand of Sri Lanka for the year 2023 using the
following smoothing methods and recommend the most appropriate value. 

i. Three year moving average method
ii. Six year moving average method
iii. Single exponential smoothing method (smoothing constant = 0.2)
iv. Single exponential smoothing method (smoothing constant = 0.05)

Year Electricity Consumption in MWh
1996 1,588
1997 1,558
1998 1,753
1999 1,408
2000 1,310
2001 1,424
2002 1677
2003 1937
2004 1685
2005 1488
2006 1562
2007 1619
2008 1687
2009 1841
2010 1865
2011 1637
2012 1653
2013 1699
2014 1698
2015 1523
2016 1557
2017 1795
2018 1934
2019 2125
2020 2543
2021 2616
2022 3191
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