Example Suppose A, B, C fail on demand independently with probability 0.1 each T OR AND AND University of Strathclyde Business School T= ^ た = (A.B) What is the probability of the top A B A event T? 01 0.1 0-1 Probability of Top Event Exact P(T) = P(A.B) + P(A.C) − P((A.B).(A.C)) = = P(A.B) + P(A.C) – P(A.B.C) = 0.019 Rare event approximation P(T) = P(A.B) + P(A.C) = P(A).P(B)+P(A).P(C) = 0.02 University of Strathclyde Business School A

Example Suppose A, B, C fail on demand independently with probability 0.1 each T OR AND AND University of Strathclyde Business School T= ^ た = (A.B) What is the probability of the top A B A event T? 01 0.1 0-1 Probability of Top Event Exact P(T) = P(A.B) + P(A.C) − P((A.B).(A.C)) = = P(A.B) + P(A.C) – P(A.B.C) = 0.019 Rare event approximation P(T) = P(A.B) + P(A.C) = P(A).P(B)+P(A).P(C) = 0.02 University of Strathclyde Business School A

College Algebra

7th Edition

ISBN:9781305115545

Author:James Stewart, Lothar Redlin, Saleem Watson

Publisher:James Stewart, Lothar Redlin, Saleem Watson

Chapter9: Counting And Probability

Section9.4: Expected Value

Problem 2E: If you played the game in Exercise 1 many times, then you would expect your average payoff per game...

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