Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 23 15 20 12 18 22 15 (a) Choose the correct time series plot. (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) What type of pattern exists in the data? (b) Develop a three-month moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. MSE: The forecast for month 8: (c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. MSE: The forecast for month 8:
Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 23 15 20 12 18 22 15 (a) Choose the correct time series plot. (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) What type of pattern exists in the data? (b) Develop a three-month moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. MSE: The forecast for month 8: (c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. MSE: The forecast for month 8:
Chapter4: Linear Functions
Section4.3: Fitting Linear Models To Data
Problem 24SE: Table 6 shows the year and the number ofpeople unemployed in a particular city for several years....
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Question
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Consider the following time series data:
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| What type of pattern exists in the data? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (b) | Develop a three-month moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSE: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The forecast for month 8: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (c) | Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSE: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The forecast for month 8: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (d) | Compare the three-month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (e) | Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in the smallest MSE. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Do not round intermediate calculations. Use a two-decimal digit precision for the exponential smoothing coefficient. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| α = |
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