A researcher hypothesizes that in a certain country the net annual growth of private sector purchases of government bonds, B, is positively related to the nominal rate of interest on the bonds, NI, and negatively related to the rate of inflation Π: Bt = a0 + a1NIt + a2Π t + ut Note that it may be hypothesized that B depends on the real rate of interest on bonds, R, where R = NI – Π. Using a sample of 56 annual observations, s/he estimates the following equations: (1) Bt = 0.43 + 0.90NIt - 0.97Πt R21 = 0.962, SSR1 = 2.20, QRESET(F1,52) = 16.6 (3.58) (8.80) (-1.05) (2) Bt = 0.44 + 0.94Rt R22 = 0.960, SSR2 = 2.22, QRESET(F1,53) = 0.9 (9.70) (16.7) (3) Bt = 0.44 + 1.14NIt SSR3 = 9.20, QRESET(F1,53) = 59.9 (8.84) (36.1) (4) NIt = 0.08 + 0.94Πt R24 = 0.997, SSR4 = 0.18, QRESET(F1,53) = 1.4 (4.03) (130.0) Using all the information provided, explain why the researcher was dissatisfied with the results of model (1).
A researcher hypothesizes that in a certain country the net annual growth of private sector purchases of government bonds, B, is positively related to the nominal rate of interest on the bonds, NI, and negatively related to the rate of inflation Π:
Bt = a0 + a1NIt + a2Π t + ut
Note that it may be hypothesized that B depends on the real rate of interest on bonds, R, where R = NI – Π.
Using a sample of 56 annual observations, s/he estimates the following equations:
(1) Bt = 0.43 + 0.90NIt - 0.97Πt R21 = 0.962, SSR1 = 2.20, QRESET(F1,52) = 16.6
(3.58) (8.80) (-1.05)
(2) Bt = 0.44 + 0.94Rt R22 = 0.960, SSR2 = 2.22, QRESET(F1,53) = 0.9
(9.70) (16.7)
(3) Bt = 0.44 + 1.14NIt SSR3 = 9.20, QRESET(F1,53) = 59.9
(8.84) (36.1)
(4) NIt = 0.08 + 0.94Πt R24 = 0.997, SSR4 = 0.18, QRESET(F1,53) = 1.4
(4.03) (130.0)
Using all the information provided, explain why the researcher was dissatisfied with the results of model (1).
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