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Wilkins, a Zurn Company: Demand Forecasting

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The current demand forecasting method is based on qualitative techniques more than quantitative ones. If the forecast is not accurate, the company would carry both inventory and stock out costs. It might lose customers due to shortage of supply or carry additional holding costs due to excess production. If the actual demand doesn’t match the forecast ones, and the forecast was too high, this will result in high inventories, obsolescence, asset disposals, and increased carrying costs. When a forecast is too low, the customer resorts to a competitive product or retailer. A supplier could lose both sales and shelf space at that retail location forever if their predictions continue to be inaccurate. The tolerance level of the average consumer …show more content…

Thus we reject Ho and t is significant.
For d1, t-statistic=- 2.5334, t-statistic > t-critical. Thus we reject Ho and d1 is significant.
For d2, t-statistic= 1.8774, t-statistic < t-critical. Thus we do not reject Ho and d2 is not significant.
For d3, t-statistic= 8.8773, t-statistic > t-critical. Thus we reject Ho and d3 is significant.
This shows that there is a time trend and seasonality in the quantity demanded of PVB.
Therefore, the equation for PVB forecast is the following:
Q= 32561.2+ 1977.6t - 13193.1D1 +9631.5D2 + 45122.1D3
Forecasting for Fire Valves:
The past demand pattern of Fire Valves, different than PVB’s, reveals random fluctuations and does not seem to be affected by seasonality factors. This is why we cannot rely on past data to forecast future demand. Given that Barge and Connors released the new fixed-pressure valves, forecasting demand for fire valves is not of great value anymore. This new product is expected to have a dramatic growth. Therefore, analyzing the sales of fire valves is irrelevant. Instead, in order for Barge to forecast the demand for the new product, he can make a study using the unemployment rate, bank prime loan rates, and number of new housing starts. This study cannot give

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