GEOG 1401 Lab 2

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Apr 29, 2024

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Physical Geography: Weather and Climate EU/SC/GEOG1401 3.0 Faculty of Environmental and Urban Change Fall 2023 WEIGHT: 10% 1 GEOG 1401: LAB EXERCISE # 2 Climate Change INTRODUCTION Weather Forecast vs Climate Projection In Canada, weather forecasting is important as the weather (day-to-day state of the atmosphere) can change a lot throughout the week (or during a day). While checking the weather forecast is important for planning your day, it does not explain long-term global atmospheric changes and their effects. Climate projections are critical for understanding how the climate (long-term overall atmospheric pattern and averages) works and how it might change in the future. For example, a 2 o C change in the weather would not result in any major changes to the atmosphere or environment, whereas a 2 o C change in the global climate can result in more frequent extreme weather events such as wildfires and hurricanes. Climate Change Models Climate models are important to gain a better understanding of how the climate works and how it might change in the future. Climate models are tested extensively by hindcasting , which uses historical data in the model to determine how well the output matches the observed climate data. The first computer models describing global warming were created in the 1960s (for which the recent 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded). In Canada, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), a section of the federal Climate Research Division, has been creating climate models since the early 1980s. They develop and apply the models to simulate global and Canadian climate, and to predict changes on seasonal to centennial timescales. Future greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and concentration will vary depending on future developments such as population growth and technological change. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were developed to represent the different amount of future GHGs and radiative forcing (additional uptake of energy by the Earth system), caused by climate change pollution. Four RCP scenarios are currently used by The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), where RCP 2.6 represents very low future emissions and will result in the least amount of global warming, and RCP 8.5 represents very high future emissions and will result in the most amount of global warming. RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 represents intermediate future emissions.
Physical Geography: Weather and Climate EU/SC/GEOG1401 3.0 Faculty of Environmental and Urban Change Fall 2023 WEIGHT: 10% 2 Figure 1 Comparison between the scenarios of three Representative Concentration Pathways. Figure from Climate Information (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Physical Geography: Weather and Climate EU/SC/GEOG1401 3.0 Faculty of Environmental and Urban Change Fall 2023 WEIGHT: 10% 3 Part A: Weather Forecast vs Climate Projection Read the articles from Climate Atlas of Canada before the lab to complete the questions. Pre-lab Material: • https://climateatlas.ca/climate-vs-weather • https://climateatlas.ca/climate-change-projections 1. “Today, the mean temperature is 25 o C in Toronto, ON. It was 30 o C in the same place and date last year, this proves that global warming is not real.” Based on the information provided, is this statement true or false? Explain. (3 marks) Is clearly false. Comparisons of local daytime temperatures (for example, the temperature in Toronto) do not reveal whether or not climate change has occurred. 2. Earth was experiencing an ice age about 20,000 years ago; about how much cooler was the average global temperature than today? Round the answer to the nearest degree. (2 marks) Global temperatures were generally 4 to 6 degrees Celsius colder during the Last Glacial Maximum (approximately 20000 years ago) than they are now. 3. Climate models are used to produce climate projection. How do scientists test the reliability of climate models? Are climate models continuously tested as the years pass? If so, why? (5 marks) Scientists test the accuracy of climate models using a process called as Model Evaluation. Model output is directly compared to observable climate data from the past to judge how well the model replicates historical climatic conditions. As new data becomes available, climate models are scrutinized by comparing projections to later observations. Regular evaluation aids in identifying possible areas for model development or refinement. 4. Why is it better to have many climate models rather than one to project future climate? Name at least two reasons. (2 marks) The following reasoning clearly validates the usage of several models: In cooperation with several models, it is possible to collect a range of projections, which clearly minimizes uncertainty and enhances estimate accuracy. As one works with more models, the chance of biases in the model simulation decreases. 5. Name three factors that would be included when creating a climate model? What factor is the main driver of global warming according to most of the climate models? (3 marks)
Physical Geography: Weather and Climate EU/SC/GEOG1401 3.0 Faculty of Environmental and Urban Change Fall 2023 WEIGHT: 10% 4 When creating a climate model, the three components listed below should be taken into account: • Temperature variations on Earth • Climate-fluctuations simply put, gas concentration • Budget for sunlight or heat The concentration of greenhouse gases has clearly been responsible for the current stage of climate change. 6. What is one major difference between weather forecast and climate projection? Provide an example (i.e. a statement written as a sentence) of a weather forecast and a climate projection. (5 marks) The time span clearly distinguishes climate projections from weather forecasts. Weather predictions clearly anticipate short-term atmospheric conditions, generally up to a few days or weeks in advance. For example, a weather forecast may explicitly state, "Tomorrow in Toronto, there is a 60% chance of rain." Climate predictions, on the other hand, focus clearly on long-term patterns and normal situations across a significantly longer time period, generally spanning decades or centuries. For example, in a climate projection, it may be put simply, "Based on current emission scenarios, global temperatures are plainly projected to increase by 2 -> 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century."
Physical Geography: Weather and Climate EU/SC/GEOG1401 3.0 Faculty of Environmental and Urban Change Fall 2023 WEIGHT: 10% 5 Part B: Climate Change in Ontario Figure 2 Maps of Ontario showing modelled temperature change during the 2050s and 2080s under 4 different climate scenarios. For this lab, only maps under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 will be used, RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 are shown for interest only.
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