Ch6_Making Inv Dec with NPV - Holden book Ch14

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Illinois State University *

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270

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Finance

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May 4, 2024

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xlsx

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10

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Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Total Sales - Total Variable Costs - Total Fixed Costs - Depreciation [(Initial Investment - Salvage Value) / # years to fully depreciate] ____________________ = Operating Profit - Taxes ____________________ Net Profit + Add Back Depreciation _____________________ Operating Cash Flow Find present values (PV) of all cash flows PV = Cash Flows(t) / ( 1 + CDF(t) ) Cumulative Discount Factor = CDF(t) = (1 + CDF(t-1) )*(1 + Nominal Cost of capital(t) ) - 1 keep CDF(0) = 0 1+Real Cost of capital = (1+Nominal cost of capital)/(1+Inflation Rate) Nominal cost of capital = (1+Real Cost of capital)* (1+Inflation Rate) - 1 Find NPV Net Present Value = PV of all cash flows - Initial Investment
Basics (in thousands of $) Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Key Assumptions Unit Sales 3000 4000 5600 6800 7400 3700 3000 Inflation Rate 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% Real Cost of Capital 11.0% 11.2% 11.4% 11.6% 11.8% 12.0% 12.2% Tax Rate 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% Discounting Discount Rate = Nominal Cost of Capital Cumulative Discount Factor 0.0% Price or Cost / Unit Sales Revenue / Unit $9.70 Variable Cost / Unit $7.40 Cash Fixed Costs $5,280 Cash Flow Forecasts Sales Revenue Variable Costs Gross Margin Cash Fixed Costs Depreciation Total Fixed Costs Operating Profit Taxes Net Profit Add Back Depreciation Operating Cash Flow Investment in Plant & Equip ($11,350) $1,400 Cash Flows Present Value of Each Cash Flow Net Present Value P ROJECT NPV
Sensitivity Analysis (in thousands of $) Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Key Assumptions Base Case Unit Sales 3000 4000 5600 6800 7400 Unit Sales Scale Factor 100.0% Unit Sales Inflation Rate 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Real Cost of Capital Increment 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% Real Cost of Capital 11.0% Tax Rate 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% Discounting Discount Rate = Nominal Cost of Capital 13.2% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Cumulative Discount Factor 0.0% 13.2% 16.1% 19.5% 23.7% 28.7% Price or Cost / Unit Sales Revenue / Unit $9.70 $9.94 $10.24 $10.60 $11.02 Variable Costs / Unit: Direct Labor $3.50 $3.59 $3.70 $3.82 $3.98 Materials $2.00 $2.05 $2.11 $2.19 $2.27 Selling Expenses $1.20 $1.23 $1.27 $1.31 $1.36 Other $0.70 $0.72 $0.74 $0.76 $0.80 Total Variable Cost / Unit $7.40 $7.59 $7.81 $8.09 $8.41 Cash Fixed Costs: Lease Payment $2,800 $2,870 $2,956 $3,060 $3,182 Property Taxes $580 $595 $612 $634 $659 Administration $450 $461 $475 $492 $511 Advertising $930 $953 $982 $1,016 $1,057 Other $520 $533 $549 $568 $591 Total Cash Fixed Costs $5,280 $5,412 $5,574 $5,769 $6,000 Working Capital Work Cap / Next Yr Unit Sales $0.87 Working Capital P ROJECT NPV
Cash Flow Forecasts Sales Revenue $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Variable Costs $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Gross Margin $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Cash Fixed Costs $5,280 $5,412 $5,574 $5,769 $6,000 Depreciation $1,421 $1,421 $1,421 $1,421 $1,421 Total Fixed Costs $6,701 $6,833 $6,996 $7,191 $7,422 Operating Profit ($6,701) ($6,833) ($6,996) ($7,191) ($7,422) Taxes ($1,407) ($1,435) ($1,469) ($1,510) ($1,559) Net Profit ($5,294) ($5,398) ($5,527) ($5,681) ($5,863) Add Back Depreciation $1,421 $1,421 $1,421 $1,421 $1,421 Operating Cash Flow ($3,873) ($3,977) ($4,105) ($4,259) ($4,442) Investment in Working Capital Investment in Plant & Equip ($11,350) Investment Cash Flow ($11,350) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Cash Flows ($11,350) ($3,873) ($3,977) ($4,105) ($4,259) ($4,442) Present Value of Each Cash Flow ($11,350) ($3,421) ($3,427) ($3,434) ($3,443) ($3,452) Net Present Value ($34,452) Data Table: Sensitivity of the Net Present Value to Unit Sales and Date 0 Real Cost of Capital Input Values for Unit Sales Scale Factor Out Formula: Net Present Value 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 9.0% Input Values for 11.0% Date 0 Real Cost of Capital 13.0% 15.0% 17.0% Sensitivity of Project NPV to Unit Sales and Cost of Capital
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