CIVI6666-ASSIGNMENT1

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Apr 3, 2024

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ENGR 6666: Climate Change in Engineering Practice Assignment Set #1 (Due date: Tuesday, March 5 th , 2024@7:00 PM) Please submit the hardcopy of your assignment in ONE dossier. Submissions must include all related codes, figures, graphs/tables of results and discussions. The assignment implies 10% bonus. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Each student is assigned to ONE city in Canada – check Table 1 and Figure 1 in the next page for the city assigned to you. Download the daily temperature and precipitation related to your city from www.climate.weather.gc.ca during the period of 1961 to 2010. You may need to choose multiple climate stations to come up with complete climate data during the indicated time. P1 (20%). Extract (1) average monthly temperature, and (2) total monthly rainfall for the city assigned to you. Plot the resulted time series during the data period of 1961 to 2005. Also, extract the expected seasonality in average monthly temperature during 1961 to 1980 and 1991 to 2010. P2 (10%). For your city, plot the average annual values of the variables identified in P1 during (1) October to next September – hydrological year, (2) January to December – Julian year, (3) November to next May – cold season, (4) June to October – warm season. P3 (25%). For your station, check if the variables identified in P2 have any significant trend at 90% and 95% confidence limit based on both parametric and non- parametric methods. For non-parametric method, you need to report the Sen ’s Slope of the trend related to each case, along with the corresponding sign and p - value of Mann-Kendall test. For parametric method, you need to fit a best line to the data in each case, report the sign and slope of the line, and inspect whether the dependency of your data with time is significant at the identified significant limits. P4 (25%). For your city, check if the variables identified in P2 have any change in their probability quantiles when moving from 1961-1980 to 1991-2010. For this you
need to extract the probability distributions in the two time periods and inspect changes in their Q5, Q25, Q50, Q75, and Q95. P5 (10%). Discuss your findings of P3 and P4 in terms of impact of climate change on weather variables in the city assigned to you. P6 (20%). If the trends identified using the parametric method stay constant in time, report the estimated values for each variable at year 2050 and 2100. Do you think the estimate values make sense? Discuss. Table1. City assignment ID City ID City ID City 40271169 Abbotsford 40062743 Red Deer 40237965 Toronto 40240802 Barrie 40293899 Regina 40291409 Trenton 40134482 Calgary 40274215 Saskatoon 40170952 Trois Rivieres 27376685 Corner Brook 40290718 Sherbrooke 40273088 Vancouver 40243322 Edmonton 40221970 Saint Catharines 40230152 Victoria 40297252 Halifax 40255749 Saint Johns 40267013 Windsor 40170876 Hamilton 40293332 Thunder Bay 40277135 Winnipeg 40243515 Kelowna 40237699 London 40236670 Barrie 40235895 Kitchener/Waterloo 40230099 Moncton 40255443 Ottawa 40240157 Quebec City 40234985 Chicoutimi Figure 1. The 30 largest cities in Canada. The 29 stations chosen for this assignment do not include Montreal (City no. 9)
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