07 Time Series Analysis

Problem 1 Forecasting • All analysis and calculations and report must be done in a single (ONE) Excel file.• Put your name at the top of the worksheet.• Make Excel do all of the calculations. (Instructor must be able to see your cell-reference formulas.)• Include report/answers below the forecasting calculations.       o Make sure answers are clear, complete and easy to find.       o Your report must include:                a. Presentation of forecasts                b. Explanation of why you chose each of the methods 1. Tom Simpson, Director of the Chamber of Commerce for Exeter township is investigating the past ten years oftourist visits to the area. The following data has been gathered on number of tourists who signed into the localinformation center. Year     Number of tourists1          7002          2483          6334          4585          14106          15887          16298          13019          145510        1989 Tom is interested in implementing a forecasting system and is…

1 The demand for automobiles at Crescent Auto Dealers for the past 8 weeks is as follows.               Week                                            Auto Demand                                                      Weights1                                                       9                                                                  0.12                                                      11                                                                 0.33                                                       8                                                                  0.64                                                      125                                                       106                                                       137                                                         78                                                        12a Develop a 3-week moving average forecast for Weeks 4 through 9b Develop a 3-week weighted average forecast…

Problem 6-01 (Algorithmic) Consider the following time series data.   Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 14 15 11 18 13   Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.   Mean absolute error. If required, round your answer to one decimal place.fill in the blank 1 Mean squared error. If required, round your answer to one decimal place.fill in the blank 2 Mean absolute percentage error. If required, round your intermediate calculations and final answer to two decimal places.fill in the blank 3% What is the forecast for week 7? If required, round your answer to two decimal place.fill in the blank 4

What are the benefits of exponential smoothing over moving average forecasting?

The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11​ years:                                                                                                                                             Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 6 8 4 7 11 7 13 12 10 13 8 This exercise contains only parts​ b, c, and d. Part 2 ​b) Using the​ 3-year moving​ average, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 ​(round your responses to one decimal​ place).                                           Part 3 ​c) Using the​ 3-year weighted moving average with weights   0.10​,   0.30​, and   0.60​, using   0.60 for the most recent​ period, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12​ (round your responses to two decimal​ places).                                           Part 4 ​d) Mean absolute deviation for the forecast developed…

Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table:  YEAR DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER (1,000S OF BAGS) 1 4 2 6 3 4 4 5 5 10 6 8 7 7 8 9 9 12 10 14 11 15 a) Forecast demand again with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1?

Sales of tablet computers at Ted​ Glickman's electronics store in​ Washington, D.C., over the past 10 weeks are shown in the table​ below:                                                                                                                       Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Demand 19 20 28 38 26 29 36 24 25 28 Part 2 ​a) The forecast for weeks 2 through 10 using exponential smoothing with   α ​=   0.60 and a week 1 initial forecast of   19.0 are ​(round your responses to two decimal​ places):                                               Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Part 3 ​b) For the forecast developed using exponential smoothing ​(   α ​=   0.60 and initial forecast   19.0​), the MAD​ =   enter your response here sales ​(round your response to two decimal​ places). Part 4 ​c) For the forecast developed using exponential smoothing ​(   α ​=   0.60 and…

2. Fastway is a parcel delivery company based in Pretoria. It measures demand on a weekly basis in terms of the number of parcels which it is given to deliver (irrespective of the size of each parcel). The forecast for week 20 is 63. The table below shows actual demands for Fastway. Week Actual demand 20 63 21 62 22 67 23 66 24 67 25 69 26 65 27 71 28 68 29 68 30 70 31 72 32 66 33 68 34 67 Predict the forecast for week 35 using an exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.20.

It has been said that forecasting using exponential smoothing is like driving a car by looking in therear-view mirror. What are the conditions that would have to exist for driving a car that are analogous to the assumptions made when using exponential smoothing?2. What capability would an organization have to have to not need forecasts?3. When a new business is started, or a patent idea needs funding, venture capitalists or investmentbankers will want to see a business plan that includes forecast information related to a profit andloss statement. What type of forecasting information do you suppose would be required?4. Discuss how you would manage a poor forecast.5. Omar has heard from some of his customers that they will probably cut back on order sizes in thenext quarter. The company he works for has been reducing its sales force due to falling demand andhe worries that he could be next if his sales begin to fall off. Believing that he may be able to convince his customers not to cut…

Demand for haircut at PogiPoints Barber Shop has increased steadily for the past few months as seen in the following time series data. Do the necessary computations and choose the best answer that would complete each statement. With weights of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2, the WMA forecast for Month 6 would be: *   A. 565 haircuts B. 574 haircuts C. 578 haircuts D. 584 haircuts

Give three example of unethical conduct involving forecasting and the ethical principle each violates.

Suppose a four-period weighted average is being used to forecast demand. Weights for the periods are as follows: wt-4 = 0.1, wt-3 = 0.2, wt-2 = 0.3 and wt-1 = 0.4. Demand observed in the previous four periods was as follows: At-4 = 380, At-3 = 410, At-2 = 390, and At-1 = 400. What will be the demand forecast for period t?

When forecasting demand for new products, sometimes i rms will use demand data from similar existing products to help forecast demand for the new product. What technique is this an example of?

Apply the Regression model forecasting technique of the data to estimate the demand in week 13.

Tom Glass forecasts electrical demand for the FlatlandsPublic Power District (FPPD). The FPPD wants to take itsComstock power plant out of service for maintenance whendemand is expected to be low. After shutdown, performingmaintenance and getting the plant back on line takes twoweeks. The utility has enough other generating capacity tosatisfy 1,550 megawatts (MW) of demand while Comstockis out of service. Table 8.5 shows weekly peak demands(in MW) for the past several autumns. When next in year 6should the Comstock plant be scheduled for maintenance?

Garfield Industries is expanding its operations throughout the Southeast United States. Garfield anticipates that the expansion will increase sales by $1,000,000 and increase operating costs (excluding depreciation and amortization) by $700,000. Depreciation and amortization expenses will rise by $50,000, interest expense will increase by $150,000, and the company’s tax rate will remain at 40 percent. If the company’s forecast is correct, how much will net income increase or decrease, as a result of the expansion?

Weighted moving average using Excel:3.1 Calculate demand forecast for weeks 7-24 using 6 week weighted moving average with weights 0.55, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.053.2 Calculate demand forecast for weeks 7-24 using 6 week weighted moving average with weights 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.15, 0.15, 0.13.3 Plot the two weighted moving average forecasts together with the actual demand. Comment on the obtained graph.3.4 Using the forecasting error measures seen in class, evaluate the forecasting error of each method. Accordingly which method is better?

Forecasting Forecasting is important relative to capacity requirements planning. What are some of the merits of using judgment methods (i.e., qualitative data) in contrast to quantitative forecasting methods. Which methods are considered to be superior or more accurate, and in what forecast situations would require judgment methods? In what situations would require a quantitative approach to forecasting?

Calculate the forecast for week 16 using  - a 2-period moving avergage - a 3-period moving average

MONTH DEMAND 1 45 2 3 4 5 48 43 48 49 6 54 7 8 9 10 47 50 46 47 Using the table above, calculate two forecasts using the following method:-i. First, for periods 4 through 10, develop the exponentially smoothed forecastsusing a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 45.0 and an alpha of 0.4. ii. Calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 10, using weights of.70, .20, and .10, with 0.70 applied to the most recent data iii. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for each forecasting procedure.Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why?

A Dallas, TX-based manufacturer of small gasoline engines has developed monthly forecasts for a family of lawnmowers. Data for the 6-month period from January to June is presented in the table below. The firm would like to use an aggregate plan. MONTH Expected Demand Production Days Jan. 800 22 Feb. 700 18 Mar. 800 24 Apr. 1,200 25 May 1,600 26 June 1,900 26 One possible strategy for the manufacturer is to maintain a constant workforce throughout the 6-month period. The information below provides the cost information necessary for analyzing this alternative. Inventory carrying cost $3.00 Subcontracting cost per unit $15.00 Average pay rate $12.00 Daily pay rate = $96.00 Overtime pay rate $18.00 Labor-hours to produce a unit 2.2 Cost of increasing daily production rate (hiring and training) $200.00 Cost of decreasing daily production rate (layoffs) $350.00 The number of units produced per day = 45 and we have a constant workforce, no overtime or…